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The US Dollar Index - Try to guess where it will go ?
Market participants reacted to the statement made by the ECB President Mario Draghi regarding the need to launch a stimulus program to support the European economy because of the deflation risk. This implies launching a euro emission program similar to the quantitative easing policy that the Federal Reserve ended recently. Therefore, on expectations of expansionary monetary policy, the single European currency declined significantly against the US dollar last Friday. In addition, the dollar received a boost after the Bank of China cut interest rates and the lower house of the Japanese parliament was dissolved as it disapproved of the weak yen policy pursued by the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Both events took place on Friday.
The current week will be a short one for the US markets because of the Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday. The second estimate of the third quarter GDP may be revised downwards on Tuesday. It is unlikely to have a strong negative impact on markets, as the revision is expected to be insignificant. At the same time the Consumer Confidence Index for November will be published. The forecast is positive. A few US economic indicators will come out on Wednesday, including durable goods orders. It is expected the decline in durable goods orders will be smaller than in September. Real estate market data and Initial Claims will be announced this week. In our opinion, their forecasts are positive.
Trading on Forex market will probably be highly volatile this week, since two important events will take place at the end of the week and may affect the dollar rate against the euro and the yen. The inflation rate in November will be released on Friday in the EU. After Mario Draghi’s recent statement regarding the deflation risk, investors don’t exclude the possibility the inflation report may trigger the launch of the ECB monetary policy easing program. On Thursday we expect the release of important economic data in Japan, and the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be speaking on his economic policy at the press conference.
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