US corporate reporting season begins today - 13.10.2021

The US dollar index continued to rise yesterday and hit a new high since July 2020. There were no significant statistics in the United States. However, Fed Vice President Richard Clarida said the US economy has recovered enough to tighten monetary policy. This supported the dollar. Investors expect that the US regulator will announce this year to reduce the monthly issue for the purchase of government bonds. The likelihood of a Fed rate hike (0.25%) in July 2022 is estimated at 50%. The dollar index is now slightly correcting downward in anticipation of today's release of important US inflation data for September. The forecast is neutral. Since it is assumed that inflation will remain at the level of August 5.3% in annual terms. In addition, the FOMC Minutes (materials of the Fed meeting) for September will be released today. Inflation data can help investors estimate when to start tightening the Fed's policy. The Japanese yen is now slightly stronger after an unexpected 17% yoy increase in Machinery Orders in August. The British pound has now strengthened thanks to the publication of good data on GDP for August (+ 6.9% yoy). Bitcoin is correcting downward for the 2nd day today. Late last week, at the Texas Blockchain Summit, several U.S. Senators highlighted the need to support the plans of Janet Yellen, the head of the U.S. Department of the Treasury (US Treasury) to revoke the anonymity of transactions with cryptocurrencies over $ 10,000. In addition, they were concerned that cryptocurrency mining could waste valuable electricity and computer resources.

Yesterday, US stocks dropped for the third day in a row. There was no particularly negative news. Probably, some investors decided to take profits ahead of today's release of important inflation data. Besides, the season of corporate reporting for the 3rd quarter will begin in the USA today. The first to publish their financial results are the largest banks: JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock. In addition, reports of Delta Air Lines and other smaller companies will be released. US stock index futures are declining this morning. Bloomberg News does not exclude a reduction in the production of iPhone 13 mobile phones by Apple due to a shortage of computer and electronic microcircuits. The company previously planned to sell 85-90 million of these phones in the 4th quarter. Apple shares in the over-the-counter market fell 1.3%. Against this background, quotations of other American manufacturers of mobile and computer devices fell: Broadcom (-1.3%), Texas Instruments (-0.8%), Micron Technology (-0.5%). China Evergrande Group missed the next coupon payment on its dollar bonds. The technical default of the company was not announced, as there is a 30-day grace period for payments. Nevertheless, this could become an additional negative for the global stock market.

On Tuesday, world oil prices dropped slightly. Since the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global economic growth to 5.9% from 6% this year. IMF also cut GDP growth forecasts for the US, China, Germany, the UK and some other countries. Today, an additional negative for the oil market was the data on the reduction of imports to China in September. Now investors are awaiting the publication of data on the weekly change in US oil and oil products reserves from the independent American Petroleum Institute. Coffee has risen markedly due to the fact that Colombian farmers canceled contracts for the supply of 1 million bags in order to sell them at current, higher prices.