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Technical Analysis NZDUSD : 2019-12-05

Strong New Zealand data bullish for NZDUSD

New Zealand data have been positive since mid-November. Will the NZDUSD increase continue?

New Zealand’s economic data have been strong on balance after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates a quarter point to 1% in mid-November: retail sales growth accelerated in Q3 to 4.5% over year from 2.9% in Q2, the terms of trade rose to 1.9% over quarter from 1.4% in Q2, and the balance of trade deficit narrowed more than expected in October. Stronger New Zealand data are bullish for NZDUSD.

NZDUSD testing MA(200) 12/5/2019 Technical Analysis IFC Markets chart

On the daily timeframe NZDUSD: D1 is rising and testing the 200-day moving average MA(200). These are bullish developments.

  • The Parabolic indicator has formed a buy signal.
  • The Donchian channel indicates uptrend: it is widening up.
  • The MACD indicator is above the signal line with the gap widening. This is a bullish signal.
  • The RSI oscillator is rising but has not reached the overbought zone.

We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper Donchian boundary at 0.6561. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the fractal low at 0.6402. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (0.6402) without reaching the order (0.6561) we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Buy Stop Above 0.6561
Stop loss Below 0.6402

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