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USD/JPY Technical Analysis - USD/JPY Trading: 2025-05-21
USD/JPY Technical Analysis Summary
Below 143.23
Sell Stop
Above 145.12
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Buy |
| MACD | Sell |
| Donchian Channel | Sell |
| MA(200) | Buy |
| Fractals | Sell |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell |
USD/JPY Chart Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
The technical analysis of the USDJPY price chart on 4-hour timeframe shows USDJPY,H4 has breached below the 200-period moving average MA(200) as it is retreating after hitting six-week high nine days ago. RSI indicator is about to breach into oversold zone. We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower bound of the Donchian channel at 143.23. A level below this can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above 145.12. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved to the next fractal high indicator, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Forex - USD/JPY
Japan’s trade deficit narrowed in April. Will the USDJPY price retreat continue?
Trade deficit narrowed in Japan: the Ministry of Finance reported the trade deficit narrowed to 115.85 billion yen in April from 504.69 billion in March, when a recovery to 271.1 billion yen surplus was forecast. Japan’s exports advanced at a slower 2% over year rate in April, in line with forecasts. This was the seventh straight month of growth albeit at the slowest pace in the that period in the aftermath of US tariffs. Shipments to the US fell 1.8%, the first drop in four months, on falling demand for automobiles, steel and ships. At the same time, total Japanese imports shrank 2.2% from a year ago but below a forecast of 4.5% decline. Narrower Japanese trade deficit is bullish for yen and bearish for the USDJPY pair. At the same time, data showed Japan’s real gross domestic product contracted at an annualized 0.7% rate in the first quarter this year, which is bullish for USDJPY.
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