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WHEAT Technical Analysis - WHEAT Trading: 2020-06-19
Wheat Technical Analysis Summary
Below 483.7
Sell Stop
Above 518.5
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Neutral |
| MACD | Sell |
| Donchian Channel | Sell |
| MA(200) | Sell |
| Fractals | Sell |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell |
Wheat Chart Analysis
Wheat Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe the WHEAT: D1 is falling under the 200-day moving average MA(200) which has levelled off. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price breaches below the lower Donchian boundary at 483.7. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above 518.5. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Wheat
Wheat price decline continues after increased ending stock and production forecast in WASDE. Will the wheat price continue declining?
The US Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates June report a week ago forecast larger US 2020/21 supplies and slight increase in beginning stocks. Total 2020/21 wheat production is now forecast at 1,877 million bushels, and total supplies were raised 16 million to 3,000 million. Domestic use and exports for the new marketing year were left unchanged for this month while ending stocks were raised 16 million bushels to 925 million. And on Tuesday Ukrainian government raised its grain crop forecast for this year to 68 million tons from 65-68 million and Russia announced its grain exports will not be subjected to any quotas from July to December. And forecasts of beneficial rain in Europe allayed concerns about possible further yield losses after a very dry spring. Expectations of ample global wheat supply are bearish for wheat price.
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