XAGUSD Price Forecast | Global risks increase demand for precious metals | IFCM India

Technical Analysis XAGUSD : 2020-05-18

Recommendation for Silver:

Buy
Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Above 16,5

Buy Stop

Below 13,9

Stop Loss

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IndicatorValueSignal
RSI Sell
MACD Neutral
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Neutral

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe, XAGUSD: D1 broke through the upper boundary of the short-term neutral trend. A number of indicators of technical analysis formed signals for a further increase. We do not exclude a bullish movement if XAGUSD rises above its last maximum, the 200-day moving average line and the upper Bollinger line: 16.5. This level can be used as an entry point. We can set a stop loss below the Parabolic signal, the lower Bollinger line, the last 2 lower fractals: 13.9. After opening the pending order, we move the stop loss following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the trend. If the price meets the stop loss level (13.9) without activating the order (16.5), it is recommended to delete the order: market sustains internal changes not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

Weak US economic data boosted demand for precious metals. Will XAGUSD quotes grow?

US retail sales in April showed a record drop of 16.2% (month to month) since 1992, when they were first calculated. This is worse than the forecast (-12%). In March, retail sales fell by 8.3%. This indicator reflects the economic situation and investors now fear that the decline in US GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2020 may be a record (up to -40%, according to various estimates) since the 30s of the last century, a period known as the "Great Depression" in the country. Let us recall that GDP fell by 4.8 % in the 1st quarter. Another negative macroeconomic factor was the very weak data on the American labor market for April, published 2 weeks ago, as well as the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the economic recovery will be long and painful. Another risk factor is the worsening of US-China trade relations as coronavirus pandemic fades. It should be noted that the United States industrial production indicator for April was better than expected. Earlier, China demonstrated a good pace of industrial recovery. This may have contributed to the rise in the silver price, which is both a precious metal, and is used in industry, in particular, when manufacturing electric cars. In turn, investors have long been buying gold. Its reserves in the world's largest SPDR Gold Trust fund reached a 7-year high of 1104.7 tons.

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